[SMM Nickel Midday Review] Nickel Prices Pulled Back on January 21, Fiscal Expenditure in 2026 to Increase Overall

SMM Nickel January 21 News:

Macro and Market News:

(1) The White House threatened Europe over Greenland's future, reigniting the "sell the US" trade, and the US dollar index fell below 99.

(2) Ministry of Finance: Overall fiscal expenditure in 2026 is "only increasing, not decreasing"; new government debt in 2025 amounted to 11.86 trillion yuan, an increase of 290 billion yuan from the previous year.

Spot Market:

On January 21, the SMM #1 refined nickel price was 139,800-150,000 yuan/mt, with an average price of 144,900 yuan/mt, down 1,450 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The mainstream spot premium quotation range for Jinchuan #1 refined nickel was 8,500-9,500 yuan/mt, with an average premium of 9,000 yuan/mt, up 750 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The spot premium/discount quotation range for mainstream domestic electrodeposited nickel brands was -100-600 yuan/mt.

Futures Market:

The most-traded SHFE nickel contract (2602) pulled back sharply during the night session, falling below 140,000, fluctuated upward during the morning session, and closed the morning session at 140,850 yuan/mt, down 1.16%.

The nickel market is currently caught in a fierce battle between "strong expectations for Indonesian policies" and the "reality of high inventory and weak demand." In the short term, as long as expectations for production cuts on the Indonesian supply side persist, nickel prices may hover at highs.